⚠️ IRAN WARDay 224 · A third carrier group and 2,000+ Marines sail for the region ◆ 🇸🇦 RIYADHThree Saudis killed at King Khalid airport, a Saudia pilot among them · AP ◆ ✈️ RIYADHEmirates, Etihad, flydubai, Lufthansa among carriers halting flights ◆ 🇾🇪 SAREEAid flights to Riyadh need Sanaa’s permit, the Houthis say ◆ 🇺🇳 UNRiyadh asks the Security Council to act on the Houthi strikes ◆ 🇾🇪 COALITIONAl-Maliki: 136 Houthi military targets destroyed Friday · Arab News ◆ 🇾🇪 SANAASaudi strikes on the airport kill two, Houthi media says ◆ 🇾🇪 NUZAILIYemen’s army claims 1,400 Houthis “neutralised” in 2,750 strikes in a day ◆ 🇷🇺 KREMLINTrump welcomed Russia’s role in an Iran settlement on a 90-minute call ◆ 🇺🇸 SYRACUSETrump rally: Iran must “give us everything” or won’t “exist” ◆ 🇩🇪 BERLINGermany to release up to 15M barrels under the G7 deal ◆ 🚢 HORMUZIranian TV: blasts in the southern passage, tankers may have hit mines · unconfirmed ◆ 🚢 NV SUNSHINEIRGC claims a strike on the LPG carrier · vows to punish violators past Hormuz ◆ 🚢 UKMTOShip hit by a projectile 13nm west of Al Jazeera, UAE, Friday · fire out ◆ 🇺🇸 CENTCOM133 ships redirected under an “ironclad” blockade ◆ 🇮🇷 IRGC NAVYMohammadi: action against “violating” ships “every night” since the war began ◆ 🇺🇸 NYTTrump ordered new Iran strike options, a three-day plan among them, after five vetoes ◆ 🇮🇷 PEZESHKIANAt a CIS summit in Turkmenistan: talks work only “without pressure and threats” ◆ 🇳🇴 OSLONavi Pillay wins the Peace Prize · Israel calls it “grotesque weaponization” ◆ 🇺🇦 UMEROVKyiv’s team meets Witkoff and Kushner Oct 9–10 on energy and Black Sea ceasefires ◆ 🚀 DRONES136 launched overnight, 93 jet-powered · 41 killed across Ukraine in a day ◆ ⚛️ ORATOMICNeutral-atom startup raises $775M toward a fault-tolerant machine ◆ 📊 CRUDEDecember Brent settles $104.72 · WTI $91.85 · both up about 0.4% ◆ ⛽️ DIESELTrump: Putin to release 300,000+ tons now, 500,000 in November ◆ 🇸🇦 RIYADHDiplomats shelter, financial-district firms evacuate staff as blasts shake the capital ◆ 🇾🇪 SAREEHouthis warn Saudi oil-facility workers away from targeted sites ◆ 🇮🇷 ARAGHCHIIran answers US views on its seven-day plan “within the next few days” ◆ 🇺🇸 NBCMilitary preparing new Iran options before the midterms, including a bombing restart ◆ 🇮🇷 ARMYAkramnia: Iran ready for preemptive strikes on US positions ◆ 🇺🇸 TRUTH SOCIALTrump: no attack on Iran before the Nov 3 midterms · talks “productive” ◆ 🇺🇸 TRUMPThe war will be “over soon, one way or the other” ◆ 💰 TREASURY17 shadow-fleet tankers sanctioned · Bessent: funds to “wage war” ◆ ✈️ CRS81 US aircraft and drones lost or damaged · 45 of them Reapers ◆ 🇷🇺 KREMLINPutin to Pezeshkian: ready to “do everything” toward a settlement ◆ 🇦🇪 DUBAIUAE revokes landing permits for Israeli repatriation flights · Times of Israel ◆ 🇺🇦 KRAMATORSKGlide bomb hits two minibuses · 33 dead, the emergency service says ◆ 🇺🇸 RUBIONo prospect of a Ukraine settlement for now, he tells Kathimerini ◆ 🔥 SALAVATUkraine says it hit Gazprom’s Bashkortostan refinery · Astra places the fire on site ◆ ⚛️ DARPAAtom Computing, Diraq, IBM, IonQ reach the final stage of its quantum benchmark ◆ 📋 REUTERS/IPSOSTrump approval 32% · tied for his career low ◆ 🇺🇸 VANCEIran must do “something meaningful” on enrichment to end the war · Reuters ◆ 🇺🇸 WHITE HOUSEPentagon asked for Iran strike options before the midterms · The Atlantic ◆ 🇸🇦 AIRPORTSHouthi strikes on Abha and Riyadh kill three, wound 36 · GACA ◆ 🇬🇧 FAIRFORDUS bombers moved off the RAF base over a feared Iranian drone plot · Tehran denies ◆ 🔥 SOCHIKyiv posts a tanker burning after a sea-drone strike · Perm, Samara, Astrakhan oil sites hit ◆ 🚢 HORMUZUKMTO: the IRGC turns a tanker back off Khasab under threat of attack ◆ 🚢 ON PEACETanker hit in Hormuz Tuesday · 12 crew hurt, 11 Indian ◆ 🇶🇦 QATARTanker struck by multiple projectiles off the northern coast · UKMTO ◆ 🇮🇷 NAQDIIRGC adviser: Iran will soon shut “illegal routes” off Oman’s coast ◆ 🚢 TANKER WAR12+ tanker attacks near Hormuz in one week, the war’s most · Reuters ◆ 🛢️ SHELLSawan: Mideast oil flows back near 80% of pre-war ◆ 🇸🇦 RIYADHCoalition downs a Houthi ballistic missile north of the capital at dawn ◆ 🇾🇪 ADENTwo Houthi missiles target the international airport · no casualties reported ◆ 🇸🇦 JAZANAttacks on Jazan and Najran airports wound three · the Houthis claim them ◆ 🇸🇦 KHAMIS MUSHAITCoalition downs an Ansarallah ballistic missile aimed at the air base city ◆ 🛢️ EAST-WESTPipeline to Yanbu pumping 5.8M b/d · Prince Abdulaziz ◆ 🇺🇸 CENTCOMDenies Iranian report of a downed MH-60R · “all U.S. military aircraft” safe ◆ 🇾🇪 SAADACoalition says it destroyed 82 Houthi targets, 11 missile stores · Anadolu ◆ 🚢 HORMUZGreek LNG carrier Maran Gas Mystras hit at the waterline · sails on, crew safe ◆ 🇷🇴 BLACK SEATurkish-owned grain ship sinks in Romania’s waters · two dead · Kyiv blames Russian drones ◆ 🇧🇬 BYALATwo more ships hit off Bulgaria · Radev: the drones’ origin “still being clarified” ◆ 🇺🇦 PRYLUKYTuesday’s barrage toll reaches 28 · at least 20 in Pryluky · Kyiv Independent ◆ 🏛️ WHITE HOUSETrump: MAGA Inc. or he will pay for the TV ads now · $1.5M in public money spent ◆ 🚢 HORMUZUKMTO: a tanker hit Monday, engine-room fire · third in two days ◆ 🇸🇦 RIYADHTürkiye and Pakistan agree to deploy forces to the kingdom ◆ 🇵🇰 ISLAMABADGuterres hails Pakistan’s “pivotal role” · urges a return to diplomacy ◆ 🇾🇪 MOCHAYemen’s government says its forces took the city from the Houthis ◆ 🇸🇦 RIYADHHouthis claim King Khalid airport, Rabigh refinery strikes · no Saudi confirmation ◆ 💰 TREASURYForeign banks dealing with Iran’s banks face sanctions without notice ◆ 🛢️ SPRUS reserve at 283M barrels · lowest since 1982 ◆ 🚢 HORMUZLipsi, six weeks old, left adrift after a hit to the engine room · crew safe ◆ 🛢️ ARAMCONasser: 3B barrels lost · refilling stocks could take two years ◆ 🇺🇸 WASHINGTONVance: nothing conclusive yet on an Iranian role in Flydubai ◆ 🛢️ KPLER40% of Gulf crude now bypasses Hormuz · exports back above pre-war ◆ 🇮🇷 TEHRANAraghchi: “no military solution, nor any solution based on new sanctions” ◆ 🇺🇦 KYIVZelensky: the US wants three-way technical talks by end of October ◆ 🚀 AIR WARRussia says it downed some 900 Ukrainian drones overnight · 650 aimed at Moscow ◆ 🇲🇩 PALANCAA shell hits the border crossing · a Moldovan guard hurt, a bus struck ◆ 🔥 REFINERIESKyiv says 51% of Russia’s refining capacity is out · AP ◆ 🇪🇪 NARVAEstonia moves its 1st Brigade toward the Russian border ◆ 🚢 HORMUZUKMTO: four tankers hit since Oct 1 · all on the Omani side ◆ 🇮🇷 NOURNEWSHormuz “will not reopen until conditions are met” ◆ 🇮🇷 ARMYAkramnia: Iran “absolutely must increase the range” of its missiles ◆ 🛢️ OPEC+November quotas held flat · next meeting Nov 1 ◆ 🛢️ ARAMCONovember Arab Light for Asia cut $3 · widest discount since 2020 ◆ 🇾🇪 ADENAl-Alimi announces strikes on “vital targets” in Sanaa and Saada ◆ 🇾🇪 SANAAHouthis claim Sunday strikes on Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais ◆ 🇮🇷 MAJLISGhashghavi: Iran is at a “post-negotiations stage” ◆ 🇮🇷 TEHRANGharibabadi: the US reply is under review · final word to follow ◆ 🇮🇷 OIL MINISTRYPaknejad resigns · NIOC chief Hamid Bovard named acting minister ◆ 🚢 RED SEAUKMTO: blasts close to a tanker 60nm south of Mokha · crew safe ◆ 🇬🇧 FAIRFORDUS B-1s fly home after the suspected plot · Pentagon confirms ◆ 🇮🇷 IRGCFadavi claims no US warships remain in or near the Gulf ◆ 🇮🇷 FARSIRGC hit seven “violating” tankers in five days, agency says ◆ 🛢️ LUKOILNYT: US–Russia talks now include Carlyle’s deal for Lukoil’s foreign assets ◆ 🇺🇳 GENEVAUN: 15,280 civilian casualties in Ukraine, Jan–Aug · up 55% ◆ 🇺🇸 WASHINGTONTrump on his Iran decision: “the easy way or the hard way” ◆ 🇺🇸 PENTAGONHegseth on Hormuz: “They don’t control it, we do” ◆ 🇮🇷 MAJLISParliament advances a bill to charge ships for Hormuz passage ◆ 🇮🇷 IRGCAny threat answered “more lethally” than the 2024 salvo on Israel ◆ 🇾🇪 RED SEA COASTAFP: over 270 fighters killed in 24 hours · 115 government troops ◆ 🇸🇦 MEDINACoalition: a Houthi drone hit a station powering the Prophet’s Mosque · Houthis: a “lie” ◆ ⛽️ DIESELG7 agrees a 100M-barrel release over four months · diesel first ◆ ⛽️ DIESELTrump order lets untaxed red-dyed diesel onto highways through Dec 31 ◆ 🇺🇸 GRAND ISLANDTrump: war “essentially almost over,” costs “a very small price” ◆ 🚢 HORMUZUKMTO: another tanker hit Friday · small fire, blackout · no casualties ◆ 🚢 HORMUZNYT: about 30 drones, 10 anti-ship missiles a week at shipping ◆ 🇸🇦 ASIRDebris from a downed Houthi missile injures a resident · prayer room hit ◆ 🇾🇪 BAB EL-MANDEBGovernment says the strait and Mayyun Island are cleared · no Houthi word ◆ 🇾🇪 DHUBABState media: the fight for the district goes on ◆ 🇾🇪 SANAACoalition: 100 jets, 324 targets in a three-front push on the capital ◆ 🇸🇦 RIYADHHouthis claim missiles and drones at an Aramco site near the capital ◆ 🇾🇪 SANAAHouthi media counts 26 Saudi airstrikes on the capital Saturday ◆ 🇮🇶 IRAQState tanker firm moves 2M barrels through Hormuz · a first in decades ◆ 🇦🇪 ABU DHABI17 Iranian prisoners handed to Tehran, Iran’s judiciary says ◆ 🇮🇶 BAGHDADIraq’s envoy in Tehran: Iran–Iraq flights resume soon ◆ 🇺🇦 KYIVA jet drone hits the Northern Bridge · a second Dnipro crossing shut ◆ 🇺🇦 KHARKIVGlide bombs wound 42 in the city · eight killed nationwide ◆ 🇲🇩 MOLDOVAThree Russian missiles and two drones strike Moldovan territory ◆ 🔥 VOLGOGRADRefinery fire after Ukrainian drones · a Samara tank farm burns too ◆ 🗳️ OKLAHOMATrump: “If we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me” ◆ 🇮🇷 TEHRANCommanders weigh targets in countries backing US operations ◆ ⛽️ DIESELG7 pledges to refrain from energy export restrictions ◆ 🇮🇷 TEHRANRezaei to Trump: “You can win every day in your own imagination” ◆ 🇺🇸 NEW YORKUS officials: Rubio ordered the delegation out · Iran says it left on schedule ◆ 🇮🇷 TEHRANPezeshkian: talks with Washington “meaningless” after three US attacks ◆ 🇮🇷 TEHRANBritain’s ambassador summoned · Fairford claims “false and ridiculous” ◆ ✈️ TEHRANForeign flights into Tehran down 42% since the Sep 23 airline sanctions ◆ 🚢 HORMUZUKMTO: a tanker hit by a projectile Thursday, fire aboard · crew safe ◆ 💰 TREASURYBessent: Iran loaded zero crude onto tankers in September ◆ 💰 TREASURYSanctions on Iran Khodro, SAIPA and the state railway ◆ 🇬🇧 LONDONSeventh Fairford arrest: a British man, 22, held in central London ◆ 🇺🇸 WASHINGTONTrump: Iran “ready to fold up” · over “very quickly” after the vote ◆ ✈️ AIRSPACEEASA: avoid parts of Saudi airspace after Houthi strikes · through Nov 16 ◆ ✈️ TABUKDubai–Tel Aviv flydubai jet diverts after cockpit stabbing · passengers safe ◆ ✈️ TABUKTrump on the copilot: “perhaps a terrorist, or perhaps a whack-job” ◆ ✈️ TABUKTrump: an IRGC link is “possible” · Israeli official: a lone wolf ◆ 🚢 GULFGoldman: Gulf oil exports back to 23.3M b/d · the 2025 average ◆ 💰 RIALAbout 2.7M to the dollar · the euro at a record 3M ◆ ✈️ TEHRANIraqi Airways lands from Najaf · first foreign carrier since the war began · AFP ◆ 🇸🇦 RIYADHMecca-pact talks · Pakistan sends Dar, Asif and its army chief ◆ ⚡ PYLONSKyiv: the first jet drone with a cutting warhead built for pylons and bridges ◆ 🇷🇺 MOSCOWNovak: four refineries attacked overnight · “all attacks” repelled ◆ 📋 POLLINGAP-NORC: Trump approval 31%, a record low across both terms ◆ 🇺🇸 WASHINGTONTrump to TIME on Iran’s Hormuz offer: “not good enough. Nearly.” ◆ 🇯🇵 TOKYOJapan’s foreign minister asks Tehran for “maximum flexibility” ◆ 💵 TREASURY10-year closes 5.22% Thursday · 20-year down 7 bp to 5.64% ◆ 💵 TREASURY30-year 5.60% · 2-year 4.75% at Thursday’s close ◆ 🛢️ ISAIASHurricane shuts in about 1.3M b/d, 62.9% of US Gulf output ◆ 🛢️ IEAMembers agree to speed March stock releases · diesel first ◆ 📈 JOBSSeptember adds 29,000 · unemployment 4.2% · hike bets fade ◆ 🇨🇳 BEIJINGRefiners halt fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, four sources tell Reuters ◆ 📊 WTIDiscount to Brent $12.87 at Friday’s settle · WTI Nov, Brent Dec ◆ 🚢 MIDEASTCrude exports 16.3M b/d in September · highest since the war began ◆ 📊 EIABrent physical print $125.44 on Oct 6 · about $21 above the screen ◆ 🔭 RAPTURE INDEX182 · unchanged on the Oct 4 print ◆ 🇮🇶 BAGHDADAl-Zaidi moves the factions’ disarm deadline to Jun 30, 2027 ◆ 📈 WALL STREETS&P −0.22% to 7,801.77 Wednesday · Dow −0.66% · off Tuesday’s records ◆ 🇮🇷 STRAIT AUTHORITYFour more added Sep 28 · 81 vessels on the list · Windward ◆ 🇮🇷 MAJLISSecurity commission: 20% of cargo value, plus seizure, for unauthorized transits ◆ 🇮🇷 MAJLISRastineh: the armed forces plan an operation to break the blockade ◆ 🇺🇸 PENTAGONInspector general: $33.4B through June · $22.3B munitions ◆ 💰 CBO$38B through Aug 1 · $2B–$3B a month from here ◆ 💰 CENTCOM$43.6B through Sep 3 · $28.1B of it munitions ◆ 🛡️ INTERCEPTORSHalf to two-thirds spent · five years to rebuild ◆ 📈 PCEAugust 3.4% headline, 3.0% core · both under forecast ◆ 🇺🇸 CAPITOL HILLHouse votes 220–204 to end hostilities with Iran ◆ 🇺🇸 CAPITOL HILLStopgap funds the government to Dec 11 · the fight waits for November ◆ ⛽️ DIESELAAA: $6.28 a gallon Thursday · off the Sep 22 record of $6.53 ◆ 📋 GENERIC BALLOTD+8.1 · up from D+6.7 on Sep 1 · Silver Bulletin ◆ 🇺🇸 WASHINGTONTrump blames Ukraine’s refinery strikes for US diesel prices ◆ 🇷🇺 MOSCOWISW: the Kremlin threatens to seize European firms’ assets over sanctions ◆ 🇷🇺 MOSCOW2027 defense budget up 27% to 17.1tn roubles · most since 2022 ◆ 📋 COOK REPORTFifteen races move to the Democrats · the House projected to flip ◆ 🗳️ MIDTERMSNov 3 · 25 days out ◆ 🇺🇸 ALASKA$54B in South Korean money for the LNG pipeline · Sullivan faces Peltola ◆ ⚛️ BERLINplanqc and LOGIQC picked for Germany’s neutral-atom error-correction race ◆ ⚾ MARINERSWilson out with four coaches · next manager comes from outside ◆ 🏈 HUSKIES3–2 after a 25–21 loss at USC · No. 20 Iowa visits Oct 9 ◆ 🏒 KRAKEN2–2–0 after a 6–2 home loss to Vegas · at Detroit Oct 9 ◆ 🏈 SEAHAWKS3–1 after a 30–23 win over the Chargers · the 49ers visit Oct 11 ◆ 🇺🇸 WASHINGTONTrump on sanctions relief: “I offered them NOTHING!”
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The Back Bar · every Pour that went out

From the Editor May 27, 2026 · Day 89

Day 89. The strikes near Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask are still going, the IRGC says it fired on a US F-35 and means to answer, and Rubio keeps telling cameras the MOU is days out. I've been hearing “days out” for three weeks now. Meanwhile the S&P closed above 7,500 and Brent slid back under — Wall Street has quietly decided the Strait is someone else's problem. Maybe it's right. Or maybe it's just a market that's stopped flinching. What stays with me tonight is the newer thread: Tehran tying any reopening of Hormuz to a halt in Lebanon. This war keeps finding new rooms to spread into. I keep the receipts because one day “days out” will turn out true, or it won't. Stay close.

— T.

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