Markets & Energy — Four Fingers News

📈 MARKET SENTIMENT

Fear & Greed

S&P 500

Nasdaq

VIX

Volatility index

Bitcoin

Gold

10-year Treasury

Yield

FNKO 💀

Trevor’s employer. Pray for him.

⛽ ENERGY MONITOR

🛢

WTI CRUDE OIL

/barrel

🛢

BRENT CRUDE

/barrel

⛽

NATIONAL GAS AVG

$4.313

▲ 13¢ vs last week

/gallon

⚡

NATURAL GAS

/MMBtu

⛽ NATIONAL GAS PRICES AAA • last confirmed Oct 5 • refreshing

REGULAR

$4.365

▬ 0¢ vs yesterday

national avg

MID-GRADE

$4.860

▬ —

national avg

PREMIUM

$5.260

▬ —

national avg

DIESEL

$6.321

▼ 2¢ vs yesterday

national avg

E85

$3.307

▬ —

national avg

VS YESTERDAY

$4.370

▬ 0¢

VS LAST WEEK

$4.477

▼ -11¢

VS LAST MONTH

$4.146

▲ +22¢

VS LAST YEAR

$3.134

▲ +$1.23

■ BOND DESK · TREASURY CURVE

Five percent has reached the benchmark.

U.S. Treasury official close · Oct 6, 2026

Bonds caught a small bid Tuesday as stocks climbed again: the 10-year eased four basis points to 5.27% and the 2-year five to 4.79%. A breather, not a retreat; every maturity past two years still pays more than 5%.

2-YEAR

4.79%

▼ −5 bp

Fed path

10-YEAR

5.27%

▼ −4 bp

Borrowing benchmark

20-YEAR

5.68%

▼ −2 bp

Long duration

30-YEAR

5.64%

▼ −2 bp

The long bond

THE 5% LINE

5.00%

10Y + LONG END ABOVE 5%

The 10-year benchmark is 27 basis points above the line; the 20-year and 30-year are above it.

2s10s +48 bp 10s30s +37 bp

The benchmark: Mortgages and corporate debt take the 10-year as a reference, then add a spread; 5% there would travel farther than 5% at the 20- or 30-year maturities.
The hurdle rate: When the government offers roughly 5%, stocks, real estate and private credit have to earn their extra risk.
The federal tab: The whole debt stock does not reprice overnight; interest expense rises as maturing debt is replaced at higher coupons.
The signal: Five percent is a round-number regime marker, not a default alarm or an automatic sell signal.

Official CMT close near 3:30 PM ET · not intraday U.S. Treasury · daily curve Federal Reserve · the long end

■ THE READ · WHAT MATTERS NOW

A hiking Fed and a shut strait are pulling on the same rope.

Rates: The FOMC lifted the target range a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep 16, its first increase since 2023. September’s 29,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment collapsed bets on an October follow-up (Federal Reserve · BLS).
The curve: Tuesday’s official close put the 10-year at 5.27%, the 30-year at 5.64% and the 2-year at 4.79%, a few basis points off Monday’s highs. Long rates above 5% on a softening labor market are a price on deficits and time, not on the next meeting (U.S. Treasury).
The tape: The S&P added 0.58% Tuesday to 7,818.93 and the Nasdaq 0.45% to 27,599.79, both records, with Nvidia and AMD leading. Only about a quarter of S&P stocks sit above their 50-day averages: a narrow climb (TheStreet · Yahoo Finance).
Crude: December Brent settled Wednesday at $100.20, down 38 cents, and November WTI at $88.28, down 1.3%, after IEA members agreed to finish March’s stock release faster, diesel first. Houthi fire at Saudi airports and new Hormuz tanker hits didn’t hold the morning gains (Reuters · IEA).
The prints: Payrolls rose 29,000 in September and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, while ISM’s prices-paid gauge hit 77.9. Hiring is stalling as input costs climb (BLS · ISM).
Pumps: Regular averages $4.369 and diesel $6.315, both easing after September’s record diesel print of $6.528. Regular still costs $1.24 more than a year ago, which is what commutes and freight bills are built on (AAA, Oct 6).

BLS · Sep jobs Federal Reserve · Sep 16

Paper reality vs hard assets Stocks, rates and the things that still have to arrive

“Wall Street is consumed with paper reality. Time for hard assets.”— The Editor

PAPER REALITY

September payrolls: +29K. Unemployment: 4.2%.
Fed target: 3.75–4.00% after the Sep 16 hike.
Use the live board above for the current tape.

HARD ASSETS

Brent and WTI are live above; EIA spot arrives with a lag.
Hormuz traffic is the physical constraint.
Fuel, shipping and fertilizer carry the cost outward.

Paper prices can diverge from physical reality. They eventually reconcile.

Paper oil vs spot Three clocks in the Brent complex

UPDATED WED OCT 7 · paper column is Wednesday’s ICE settle, December contract · EIA’s latest spot print is Tue Oct 6, released Oct 7 · Dated Brent crisis high Tue Apr 7; current quote subscriber-only

PAPER · FRONT-MONTH

$100.20

Wednesday’s settle for December, the front month, down 38 cents, with WTI at $88.28 on November. A morning gain on Hormuz tanker hits and Houthi fire at Saudi airports gave way once the IEA agreed to speed its stock releases · ICE front-month (Reuters)

The visible, fast-moving risk price.

PHYSICAL · EIA SPOT

$125.44

Tue Oct 6 · in EIA’s daily series by Wed Oct 7

Latest official Europe Brent spot observation; the public series arrives with a lag.

PHYSICAL · APRIL CRISIS HIGH

$144.42

Tue Apr 7 · Platts Dated Brent record

Historical physical benchmark, not today’s quote. The current daily assessment remains subscriber-only.

PUBLIC SNAPSHOT GAP The physical print sits about $25 above Wednesday’s paper settle The paper leg still trades under the cargo. The public series ran $96.02 on Sep 1 and $109.51 on Sep 9, peaked at $130.80 on Sep 15, fell to $114.89 on Sep 22, bounced to $120.92 on Sep 24 and $119.97 on Sep 28, printed $113.96 on Sep 29, jumped to $135.51 on Oct 2 and printed $125.44 on Tuesday Oct 6, while November futures settled at $105.28 on Monday and $102.59 on Tuesday before expiring, and December took over at $98.03 on Wednesday, then settled at $102.31 on Thursday, $102.25 on Friday, $100.32 on Monday, $100.58 on Tuesday and $100.20 on Wednesday. The cargo print is Tuesday’s and the paper settle Wednesday’s, and the paper leg is a December contract against a prompt cargo, so read the spread as indicative rather than like-for-like. The benchmark stays thin: no Brent cargoes were scheduled to load in August, a first for the grade.

“Do you have the oil or not?”— The Editor

ICE Brent futures EIA Brent spot history Platts · Apr 7 record Platts method

Vault Watch Gold custody, repatriation and trust

The New York Fed held about 6,331 metric tons of gold for official account holders as of 2024. Custody matters when someone asks for delivery.

FRANCE · MOVING

129 tons

Reported New York sales funded bullion purchases in Paris.

GERMANY · IN NEW YORK

1,236 tons

The largest foreign holding there; repatriation pressure resumed.

RUSSIA · PRECEDENT

$300B